IPO Allotment Probability Calculator
Enter the retail subscription figure to estimate your chance of an allotment — or prefill it from a live IPO below. No PAN, no sign-up; just the maths behind the lottery.
Prefill from a live IPO
Estimated allotment chance
0%
Very low chanceStatistical estimate for one lot at the cut-off price. When retail is oversubscribed, allotment is a computerised lottery with equal odds per application, so the chance of the minimum lot is roughly 1 ÷ subscription. Applying for more lots does notimprove retail odds once the category is oversubscribed. Not a guarantee — actual allotment depends on the registrar’s final basis of allotment.
Live IPO allotment odds
Estimated retail allotment chance for current IPOs, from the latest subscription figures.
| IPO | Retail sub. | Est. chance | Allotment |
|---|---|---|---|
| IC ElectricalsSME | 372.5x | 0% · Very low chance | — |
| KusumgarMB | — | — | — |
Allotment odds — frequently asked questions
- How is IPO allotment probability calculated?
- When the retail category is oversubscribed, SEBI rules require allotment of the minimum one lot by a computerised lottery in which every application has an equal chance. So the probability of getting that one lot is roughly 1 ÷ the retail subscription — e.g. at 10x retail subscription, about a 10% chance. Below 1x, every retail applicant is allotted.
- Does applying for more lots increase allotment chances?
- No. Once the retail category is oversubscribed, allotment is done in units of the minimum lot by lottery, and each application gets one entry regardless of how many lots it bid for. Applying at the cut-off price for one lot is the odds-optimal retail strategy; extra lots only tie up more money in ASBA.
- What retail subscription gives a good allotment chance?
- Lower is better for your odds. Around 1.5x roughly two in three applicants are allotted; at 2x about half; at 3x about 1 in 3; at 10x roughly 1 in 10; at 50x roughly 1 in 50. Heavily oversubscribed IPOs have low per-application odds no matter the strategy.
- Is this allotment probability a guarantee?
- No. It is a statistical estimate based on the retail subscription. The actual outcome depends on the registrar’s final basis of allotment, category reservations and rounding. Always check your status on the registrar, BSE or NSE after allotment.