Data study
Does GMP predict IPO listing gains?
Grey market premium is everywhere before an IPO lists — but how well does it actually track the listing price? We check our own GMP history against real listing outcomes and keep score, honestly.
By the ipostation Research Desk · IPOs listed since 18 Jun 2026 · sample of 17 IPOs
IPOs analysed17
Direction correct76%GMP called gain vs discount right
Avg miss9.3 ptsmean absolute error vs actual
Bias-5.3%GMP over-shot
Across 17 listed IPOs we have full data for, grey market premium got the direction right (a gain vs a discount) 76% of the time, and its implied listing gain missed the actual gain by 9.3 percentage points on average. GMP tended to over-predict the listing gain. GMP is a demand signal, not a price — treat it accordingly.
| IPO | Issue | Final GMP | GMP implied | Actual | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kratikal Tech | ₹135 | ₹78 | +57.8% | +42.2% | -15.6% |
| Sampark India Logistics | ₹84 | ₹2.5 | +3.0% | +6.0% | +3.0% |
| Seemax Resources | ₹141 | ₹0 | +0.0% | -20.0% | -20.0% |
| Aastha Spintex | ₹136 | ₹5 | +3.7% | -4.4% | -8.1% |
| Adon Agro Commodities | ₹70 | ₹0 | +0.0% | +11.8% | +11.8% |
| Crazy Snacks | ₹42 | ₹0 | +0.0% | +4.8% | +4.8% |
| CSM Technologies | ₹113 | ₹0 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| Advit Jewels | ₹138 | ₹49.5 | +35.9% | +35.5% | -0.4% |
| Waterways Leisure Tourism | ₹808 | ₹-51 | -6.3% | -14.6% | -8.3% |
| Jivial Industries | ₹196 | ₹0 | +0.0% | -20.0% | -20.0% |
| Riyaasat Lifestyle | ₹106 | ₹0 | +0.0% | -20.0% | -20.0% |
| Anubhav Plast | ₹80 | ₹0 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| Turtlemint Fintech Solutions | ₹152 | ₹-5 | -3.3% | -10.4% | -7.1% |
| Liotech Industries | ₹321 | ₹0 | +0.0% | -19.9% | -19.9% |
| Leapfrog Engineering | ₹23 | ₹0 | +0.0% | -4.3% | -4.3% |
| Diksha Polymers | ₹112 | ₹0 | +0.0% | +2.2% | +2.2% |
| Susan Electricals India | ₹127 | ₹43 | +33.9% | +46.5% | +12.6% |
Method. For each IPO that has listed, we take the last grey market premium we recorded before listing and express it as a percentage of the issue price (the GMP-implied listing gain). We compare that with the actual listing-day gain, using the official BSE listing price. Only IPOs with both a recorded pre-listing GMP and a real listing outcome are included. Full sourcing is in our methodology; GMP’s limits are in the disclaimer. GMP is unofficial and not a guarantee of any listing price.