Data study
Does GMP predict IPO listing gains?
Grey market premium is everywhere before an IPO lists — but how well does it actually track the listing price? We check our own GMP history against real listing outcomes and keep score, honestly.
By the ipostation Research Desk · IPOs listed since 18 Jun 2026 · sample of 72 IPOs
IPOs analysed72
Direction correct81%GMP called gain vs discount right
Avg miss9.7 ptsmean absolute error vs actual
Bias+1.2%GMP under-shot
Across 72 listed IPOs we have full data for, grey market premium got the direction right (a gain vs a discount) 81% of the time, and its implied listing gain missed the actual gain by 9.7 percentage points on average. GMP tended to under-predict the listing gain. GMP is a demand signal, not a price — treat it accordingly.
| IPO | Issue | Final GMP | GMP implied | Actual | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skytech Infinite Platform | ₹77 | ₹1 | +1.3% | -3.9% | -5.2% |
| Technocrats Plasma Systems | ₹132 | ₹70 | +53.0% | +74.2% | +21.2% |
| ENS Enterprises | ₹92 | ₹5 | +5.4% | +4.3% | -1.1% |
| Credent Connect | ₹189 | ₹92 | +48.7% | +90.0% | +41.3% |
| Behari Lal Engineering | ₹285 | ₹133 | +46.7% | +60.7% | +14.0% |
| Pramodini Medicare | ₹118 | ₹0 | +0.0% | +1.7% | +1.7% |
| Q&T Foods | ₹115 | ₹1 | +0.9% | +0.0% | -0.9% |
| Shiprocket | ₹97 | ₹36 | +37.1% | +33.5% | -3.6% |
| Sham Foam | ₹130 | ₹1.5 | +1.2% | -20.0% | -21.2% |
| Milky Mist Dairy Food | ₹140 | ₹19.7 | +14.1% | +17.9% | +3.8% |
| Dhoot Transmission | ₹871 | ₹262 | +30.1% | +37.1% | +7.0% |
| Molbio Diagnostics | ₹807 | ₹120 | +14.9% | +21.4% | +6.6% |
| Optimystix Entertainment | ₹175 | ₹0 | +0.0% | +2.9% | +2.9% |
| LEAP India | ₹159 | ₹13 | +8.2% | +4.4% | -3.8% |
| Technocraft Ventures | ₹212 | ₹42 | +19.8% | +34.4% | +14.6% |
| LAPL Automotive | ₹94 | ₹50 | +53.2% | +43.6% | -9.6% |
| Ardee Industries | ₹53 | ₹17 | +32.1% | +38.9% | +6.8% |
| G.V. Electricals | ₹130 | ₹25 | +19.2% | +21.5% | +2.3% |
| Aegeus Technologies | ₹105 | ₹12 | +11.4% | +18.6% | +7.1% |
| Anawil Wire & Engineering | ₹270 | ₹58 | +21.5% | +22.1% | +0.6% |
| Fusion Klassroom Edutech | ₹159 | ₹0 | +0.0% | +6.9% | +6.9% |
| Dhaval Packaging | ₹97 | ₹12 | +12.4% | +13.4% | +1.0% |
| MV Electrosystems | ₹425 | ₹106 | +24.9% | +22.1% | -2.8% |
| Juniper Green Energy | ₹225 | ₹22.5 | +10.0% | +7.6% | -2.4% |
| Oneindig Technologies | ₹96 | ₹7 | +7.3% | +25.0% | +17.7% |
| Manipal Health Enterprises | ₹590 | ₹3 | +0.5% | +11.0% | +10.5% |
| H.R. Hygiene Products | ₹88 | ₹1 | +1.1% | +2.3% | +1.1% |
| Poojaa Precision Engg. | ₹301 | ₹235 | +78.1% | +56.1% | -21.9% |
| Advance Technoforge | ₹95 | ₹8 | +8.4% | -1.1% | -9.5% |
| Propshop Events & Exhibitions | ₹69 | ₹0 | +0.0% | -20.0% | -20.0% |
| Silverstorm Parks & Resorts | ₹133 | ₹0 | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| Cube Highways Trust InvIT | ₹152 | ₹1.75 | +1.2% | +2.0% | +0.8% |
| Xtranet Technologies | ₹127 | ₹12.5 | +9.8% | +2.4% | -7.4% |
| Indo-MIM | ₹485 | ₹190 | +39.2% | +45.0% | +5.8% |
| Lohia Corp | ₹425 | ₹16.5 | +3.9% | +8.2% | +4.4% |
| Shree Balaji Mala | ₹70 | ₹55 | +78.6% | +90.0% | +11.4% |
| Metalic Technoforge | ₹77 | ₹6 | +7.8% | +13.0% | +5.2% |
| Gulf Lloyds | ₹100 | ₹1 | +1.0% | +0.0% | -1.0% |
| Caliber Mining | ₹424 | ₹64 | +15.1% | +18.9% | +3.8% |
| Sotefin Bharat | ₹187 | ₹2.5 | +1.3% | +9.6% | +8.3% |
| SBI Funds Management | ₹574 | ₹95.5 | +16.6% | +6.3% | -10.4% |
| Alpine Texworld | ₹105 | ₹1 | +1.0% | +0.0% | -1.0% |
| Millworks Technologies | ₹331 | ₹395 | +119.3% | +90.0% | -29.3% |
| Devson Catalyst | ₹118 | ₹49 | +41.5% | +66.2% | +24.7% |
| Laser Power & Infra | ₹214 | ₹40 | +18.7% | +25.7% | +7.0% |
| Happy Steels | ₹66 | ₹10 | +15.2% | +3.0% | -12.1% |
| Kusumgar | ₹419 | ₹161 | +38.4% | +37.0% | -1.4% |
| IC Electricals | ₹99 | ₹47 | +47.5% | +67.7% | +20.2% |
| Knack Packaging | ₹170 | ₹8.5 | +5.0% | +9.4% | +4.4% |
| Atharva Polyplast | ₹60 | ₹10 | +16.7% | +15.0% | -1.7% |
| Teja Engineering Industries | ₹220 | ₹36 | +16.4% | +90.0% | +73.6% |
| Seemax Resources | ₹141 | ₹0 | +0.0% | -20.0% | -20.0% |
| Sampark India Logistics | ₹84 | ₹2.5 | +3.0% | +6.0% | +3.0% |
| Vinit Mobile | ₹158 | ₹0 | +0.0% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| Kratikal Tech | ₹135 | ₹78 | +57.8% | +42.2% | -15.6% |
| Aastha Spintex | ₹136 | ₹5 | +3.7% | -4.4% | -8.1% |
| Adon Agro Commodities | ₹70 | ₹0 | +0.0% | +11.8% | +11.8% |
| Crazy Snacks | ₹42 | ₹0 | +0.0% | +4.8% | +4.8% |
| CSM Technologies | ₹113 | ₹0 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| Riyaasat Lifestyle | ₹106 | ₹0 | +0.0% | -20.0% | -20.0% |
| Advit Jewels | ₹138 | ₹49.5 | +35.9% | +35.5% | -0.4% |
| Waterways Leisure Tourism | ₹808 | ₹-51 | -6.3% | -14.6% | -8.3% |
| Shreedhar Spinners | ₹53 | ₹0 | +0.0% | +2.6% | +2.6% |
| Jivial Industries | ₹196 | ₹0 | +0.0% | -20.0% | -20.0% |
| Anubhav Plast | ₹80 | ₹0 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| Turtlemint Fintech Solutions | ₹152 | ₹-5 | -3.3% | -10.4% | -7.1% |
| Avience Biomedicals | ₹208 | ₹145 | +69.7% | +90.0% | +20.3% |
| Leapfrog Engineering | ₹23 | ₹0 | +0.0% | -4.3% | -4.3% |
| Liotech Industries | ₹321 | ₹0 | +0.0% | -19.9% | -19.9% |
| Clay Craft | ₹203 | ₹35 | +17.2% | +3.9% | -13.3% |
| Diksha Polymers | ₹112 | ₹0 | +0.0% | +2.2% | +2.2% |
| Susan Electricals India | ₹127 | ₹43 | +33.9% | +46.5% | +12.6% |
Method. For each IPO that has listed, we take the last grey market premium we recorded before listing and express it as a percentage of the issue price (the GMP-implied listing gain). We compare that with the actual listing-day gain, using the official BSE listing price. Only IPOs with both a recorded pre-listing GMP and a real listing outcome are included. Full sourcing is in our methodology; GMP’s limits are in the disclaimer. GMP is unofficial and not a guarantee of any listing price.